This newsletter was published 16.4.2025 at 17:16pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUAs have finally created a local low following the sell-off triggered by the threat of tariffs imposed by U.S. President Trump, which was later followed by the announcement of a 90-day pause. The market found strong support just above 60 EUR for the December 2025 futures contract, and all the aggressive selling was absorbed with relative ease, especially considering the volume of selling that took place last week. Fundamentals have remained stable, and many analysts are now pointing to technicals, suggesting that EUAs still need to close the overnight gap from April 2. According to the latest weekly CoT report, investment fund net exposure has come close to zero. However, this does not mean that participants hold no positions at all. Long exposure still stands at over 53 million tonnes, while short positions have also grown and now amount to just over 51 million EUAs. It is unclear whether prices will continue to trend higher, but based on investment fund positioning, there are clearly two strong opposing interests at play. Since 2024, the compliance deadline for EUAs has been postponed from the end of April to the end of September, while UK allowances still need to be surrendered by the end of this month. This has amplified buying activity in UKAs, which are currently trading near their yearly highs. Investors in the UK ETS have maintained their bullish stance and have once again increased their long positions in UKAs.

German power prices are up by 5.35 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 83.00 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 4.00 USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 111.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 0.725 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 32.975 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 330 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1380.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract