This newsletter was published 23.4.2025 at 17:01pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

A bullish push in EUAs emerged today, following persistent selling pressure yesterday. It appears that global markets remain heavily influenced by geopolitical developments. However, participants also seem eager to latch onto any piece of positive news to spark a relief rally. Today’s upward move was likely supported by the U.S. administration’s suggestion to lower tariffs on Chinese goods, which helped propel EUAs higher with relative ease. The session opened with an overnight gap to the upside, followed by a strong intraday rally of 2.5 EUR, almost in a straight line. Limited primary supply, with only one auction held so far, might have also contributed to the bullish momentum. In contrast, related markets within the European energy complex did not exhibit similar strength, especially when compared to EUAs. Front-month TTF gas futures continue to trade below 35 EUR per MWh, while benchmark German power futures have been moving similarly to gas prices. Renewables are expected to play an increasingly significant role in the coming months. However, current spot power prices do not yet indicate an oversupply in the market. The relative strength in EUAs today could also be attributed to potential accumulation by financial participants. Risk-on assets, particularly stock indices, have staged a partial recovery from recent lows. Meanwhile, crude oil has failed to show similar resilience. Several OPEC+ members are reportedly in favour of increasing oil output in June, which could be weighing on prices.

German power prices are down by 1.20 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 81.80 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 6.75 USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 104.25 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 0.875 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 32.100 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 10 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1370.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract