This newsletter was published 30.4.2025 at 17:29pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

Emission allowances have remained range-bound for nearly two weeks, as the market struggles to find the momentum needed to break through key technical levels. Investment funds have reduced their activity or limited it to intraday trading. The latest CoT report showed no significant changes in net positioning, which could be attributed to several factors. Short-term fundamentals, such as weather conditions and renewable power generation, have been exerting downward pressure. Additionally, concerns over tariffs and the resulting economic implications are weighing on EUAs, or at the very least, making market participants hesitant to take large, long-term positions. Despite a generally bearish outlook, the most recent auctions have all cleared at a premium to the secondary market. This typically signals stronger demand from compliance companies, which appear to be taking advantage of lower prices. While EUAs are trading relatively close to their yearly lows, the situation is quite the opposite in the UK ETS. UK emission allowances continue to trade near their yearly highs, although they have yet to break above the psychologically important 50 GBP level. Investment funds are still adding to their long positions, providing support to the market. However, their exposure has now exceeded 17 million tonnes of UKAs, which could increase downside sensitivity. Both EUAs and UKAs could remain range-bound in the near term, unless a fundamental catalyst emerges to spark a new trend.

German power prices are down by 0.10 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 81.70 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 0.95 USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 105.20 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 0.600 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 31.500 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 20 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1350.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract