This newsletter was published 30.7.2025 at 16:47pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

The dynamics in the energy markets have shifted in recent days, as EUAs advanced to their highest levels in July. It appeared the market was waiting for a catalyst to trigger upward momentum, and participants found it in two major developments this week. The first was the tariffs agreement between the United States and the European Union. While the deal may not be a clearly bullish catalyst, it helped reduce uncertainty, providing a more stable outlook. The second potential driver was the revised auction calendar for the period from September to December 2025. The total volume scheduled for auction during that period is 192.112.500 tonnes—mostly in line with expectations. Many market participants may have also seen an opportunity for a favourable risk-return trade-off, especially as prices appeared to bottom out under persistent downward pressure and found support just below 70 EUR for the December 2025 futures contract. Additional support for EUAs may have come from strong auction clearings this week, particularly Monday’s auction, which cleared significantly above the secondary market price. Other markets in the European energy complex showed no signs of weakness as well. Front-month TTF gas prices rebounded sharply from around 32 EUR per MWh, while benchmark German power futures rose by almost 5 percent week-on-week.

German power prices are up by 3.95 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 88.81 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 3.25 USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 112.55 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 1.340 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 34.390 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 250 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1480.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract