This newsletter was published 20.8.2025 at 17:08pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUAs sold off after investment funds trimmed part of their net long exposure ahead of the Trump–Putin summit last week. The move reflected heightened uncertainty over the outcome of the talks, particularly as any progress toward peace could potentially translate into increased gas flows from Russia to Europe. Despite these headwinds, EUAs managed to hold firm above 70 EUR for the December 2025 futures contract. Trading conditions, however, continue to reflect a typical “summer mode,” with narrow daily ranges and subdued activity becoming the norm. Implied volatility is hovering near record lows, signalling a consensus among market participants that the current calm market environment may persist in the near term. Selling pressure tends to emerge around 73 EUR per tonne, while buyers have consistently stepped in on dips. Meanwhile, bullish weather-driven fundamentals that had previously supported EUA prices are beginning to fade. The recent European heatwave has eased, reducing demand pressures. On the gas side, underground storage facilities are steadily filling, though at a somewhat slower pace compared to previous years. Current inventories stand just above 74 percent full, slightly below levels recorded in mid-August 2023 and 2024.

German power prices are down by 2.10 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 83.60 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 1.06 USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 108.60 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 0.990 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 31.610 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 50 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1660.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract