This newsletter was published 8.10.2025 at 17:07pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUAs briefly breached the 80 EUR mark on Monday, following a strong upward push after an opening gap. This level was last seen in mid-February earlier this year. The recent momentum in EUAs appears to have been amplified by geopolitical risks, particularly Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s critical gas infrastructure. Adding to the bullish sentiment, Qatar announced a temporary suspension of maritime operations —and consequently LNG cargo deliveries — due to a GPS malfunction. These fundamental developments exerted significant upward pressure on TTF gas prices, which in turn supported gains across carbon and power markets. Despite the ongoing Carbon Forward Conference in London this week, trading volumes in EUAs remained healthy, though slightly lower compared to the last week. Daily auctions offered no major surprises, generally clearing near prevailing spot prices. One notable exception occurred today, when Northern Ireland auctioned 796,500 EUAs. The auction cleared at a discount, yet futures prices rallied soon after the results were released — suggesting strong underlying demand and resilience in sentiment. The market also seems to have adjusted smoothly to the inclusion of data from the weekly CoT report. Investment funds continue to increase their exposure, with gross length now exceeding 113 million tonnes, and net positioning rising above 85 million EUAs — the highest level since 2021. Despite the relative strength of EUAs, the market may still be vulnerable to a downside correction, especially if investors decide to decrease the exposure.

German power prices are up by 3.25 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 87.90 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 2.85 USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 98.50 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 0.800 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 31.850 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 130 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1620.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract