This newsletter was published 15.10.2025 at 16:58pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

Carbon surpassed the 80 EUR mark again by the end of last week, extending the upward momentum before retreating below 77 EUR amid renewed macro-driven volatility. The rally that pushed prices above 80 EUR for the December 2025 futures contract was initially fuelled by persistent speculative interest and tightening fundamentals. Geopolitical tensions over the weekend triggered a sell-off across markets, and EUAs were not immune to the broader risk-off environment. The latest downturn followed comments from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who rattled markets with renewed tariff threats, prompting a wave of profit-taking across commodities. Despite little price change on a week-on-week basis, investment fund positioning remains robust, with the latest CoT data showing total length now exceeding 90 million tonnes — approaching the largest net long since 2021, when positions briefly topped at above 100 million tonnes. The figure itself could be significant fundamentally and it could become psychologically important as well. Trading activity stayed healthy, albeit slightly below last week’s pace, as participants continued to digest signals from geopolitical developments. Daily primary auctions cleared largely in line with prevailing spot prices, suggesting a stable underlying bid. While the recent correction may help ease overbought conditions, the market’s ability to stabilise and absorb selling pressure continues to underline strong underlying demand and resilient sentiment among compliance buyers, utilities, and other participants.

German power prices are down by 1.53 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 86.37 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are unchanged since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 98.50 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 1.000 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 30.850 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD unchanged since last week and is currently trading at 1.1620.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract