This newsletter was published 22.10.2025 at 16:51pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUAs continue to trade within a relatively narrow range, hovering below 80 EUR for the December 2025 futures contract. Market participants appear to have maintained the same logic for an extended period, consistently buying the dips. This approach has worked well so far, as the market typically rebounded and tested previous highs, however one should remain cautious. Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, there have been no significant sell-offs, and even minor liquidations have had only little impact on the pricing. With the colder months approaching, demand for heating and power is gradually increasing. Underground gas storage levels remain comfortably above 80 percent full, which is slightly lower than in the past three years but still considered healthy. This has helped preventing sharp spikes in TTF front-month and calendar contracts, which in turn may have limited stronger rallies in carbon prices. Auctions over the past week have continued to clear near prevailing spot market prices, suggesting consistent and relatively firm demand. However, the coal market has experienced a notable price increase, rising by nearly 10 percent in just a few trading sessions, likely due to a cold spell in Asia. The combination of more expensive coal and relatively cheaper gas may currently be capping short-term upside potential for EUAs. Even the recent rise in investment fund positioning, which reached nearly 95 million tonnes, has had limited impact on price developments throughout October so far.

German power prices are up by 0.73 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 87.10 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 1.60 since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 101.10 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 0.120 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 30.970 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD down by 20 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1600.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract