This newsletter was published 29.10.2025 at 17:21pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

Carbon prices continue to trade within the now well-established range 77 to 80 EUR for the December futures contract, as weak market fundamentals provide sufficient resistance to any breakout. Even with colder weather approaching and shorter daylight hours, EUAs remain largely unperturbed. At this stage, it seems that any meaningful directional move would require a significant catalyst. The general market consensus suggests that EUAs are unlikely to experience major volatility in the near term. Supporting this view, implied volatility remains at historically low levels, which may be further anchoring prices within the current band. The latest CoT report published today shows little change overall, particularly in the investment fund segment. Investors trimmed their net long positions by just over 1 million tonnes, leaving the total net position still comfortably above 90 million tonnes. While this could, in theory, increase susceptibility to a downward correction, recent market dips have consistently been bought. On the other hand, the large speculative positioning could create some flexibility on the supply side should participants decide to reduce their long exposure further. Looking ahead, the expected market tightness for 2026 and 2027 remains a key structural factor, with many participants likely positioning for the longer term. In the broader energy context, underground gas storage levels currently exceed 80 percent capacity, although minor net withdrawals have been observed since early October. These remain insignificant for now. Meanwhile, UK emission allowances have mirrored EUAs’ behaviour, trading steadily between 54 and 57 GBP for the December 2025 futures contract. Bi-weekly auctions continue to clear mostly at a premium to prevailing spot prices.

German power prices are up by 0.40 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 87.50 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 3.10 since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 104.20 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 0.135 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 30.835 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD up by 60 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1660.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract