This newsletter was published 26.11.2025 at 17:14pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

Increased volatility in the global financial markets has not significantly shaken carbon prices, which continue to trade higher. Despite the strong sentiment, the market encountered some resistance above 82 EUR for the December 2025 futures contract. However, each retracement from this level has become increasingly shallow, giving the impression that the market is preparing to move higher. Despite some bearish weather fundamentals, the market has continued to push higher, suggesting that traders may be discounting or looking past these factors. At the same time, recent geopolitical developments, including news that may open the door to peace talks and potentially a ceasefire in Ukraine, have helped maintain positive sentiment. Additional bullish momentum came from last week’s strong auctions, with all but one clearing at a premium to the secondary market, even though cover ratios declined slightly compared with the previous week. The major surprise was in the UK ETS auction, where the bi-weekly sale cleared at a significant discount of 1 GBP. This may indicate conflicting signals in the UK emissions market, which has otherwise been rising alongside EUAs. Option activity over the past week remained healthy, though implied volatility is still quite low. On the call side, the strike with the largest open interest for the December expiry is 100 EUR, with more than 26 million EUAs of open interest, followed by the 80 EUR strike with just over 21 million EUAs.

German power prices are down by 2.30 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 87.30 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 1.65 since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 99.90 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 1.315 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 28.625 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD up by 40 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1590.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract