This newsletter was published 17.12.2025 at 16:31pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

As the year comes close to an end, the market has maintained a bullish tone following the recent options expiry. Liquidity has declined with the start of the annual auction pause, while trading activity has concentrated on the December 2026 futures contract, which has now become the benchmark instrument. Over the past week, price action has remained firmly in an uptrend, with only shallow pullbacks. All dips have been met with strong buying interest or a clear absence of selling pressure. The ongoing auction pause, causing the lack of supply is likely providing additional short-term support, particularly as short-term weather fundamentals turn more constructive. Related markets have also shown some strength in recent days, most notably German power futures, which have been moving in tandem with EUA prices. Calendar 2026 power futures have recently traded around EUR 85 per MWh, having found solid support just below EUR 83 per MWh. In contrast, gas prices—especially shorter-dated products such as TTF monthly futures—have continued to drift lower, despite relatively low underground gas storage levels. Current storage stands just below 70 percent of capacity, well beneath the 10-year average. Nevertheless, the market has shown little sign of stress, as rallies have consistently attracted willing sellers. Sentiment in the EUA market remains distinctly bullish as well. Investment funds have steadily increased their long positions throughout the final quarter of 2025. According to the latest Commitments of Traders report, funds now hold a net long position of approximately 114 million tonnes—the largest net exposure recorded in the history of the EUAs. The impact of any potential position reductions remains uncertain, particularly with auctions set to resume on January 7 and primary supply expected to be lower in 2026. Finally, we would like to wish you a Merry Christmas and a successful New Year in 2026. Please note that, due to the holiday season, the next Carbon Prices newsletter will be published during the first week of the new year.

German power prices are up by 1.80 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 84.90 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 1.50 since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 95.50 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 0.160 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 26.290 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD up by 110 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1750.

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract