This newsletter was published 14.1.2026 at 16:57pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

The strong start of 2026 continues, with EUAs maintaining upward momentum and trading at higher levels daily. The broader European energy complex has remained notably bullish, and this strength has persisted despite the full resumption of daily primary auctions. Rather than dampening sentiment, auction supply has been comfortably absorbed by the market, reinforcing the prevailing positive trend. A key supporting factor has been weather. Temperatures across much of Europe are currently around five degrees below historical averages, boosting heating demand and lending further support to gas, power, and carbon prices. Against this backdrop, EUAs have now firmly broken through the 90 EUR level, repeatedly testing and breaching 91 EUR for December 2026 futures contract. Investors positioning continues to play a big role as well. According to the latest CoT report, investment funds have increased their net long exposure to more than 125 million tonnes, the highest level ever recorded. While this reflects strong confidence in the medium-term outlook for carbon, such crowded positioning also introduces meaningful downside risk, particularly in the current uncertain geopolitical environment where sentiment can shift rapidly. UKAs have largely followed the EUA price direction, although recent UK auctions cleared at a slight discount to the secondary market. Meanwhile, European gas storage levels have been depleting at a notable pace and now stand just above 50 percent full—significantly lower than at the same time last year—adding another layer of structural support to the energy complex.

German power prices are down by 3.17 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 86.37 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 1.45 USD since last week, with the Cal-27 contract trading at 95.25 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 0.380 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 24.940 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD down by 30 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1650.

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract