This newsletter was published 04.2.2026 at 17:39pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

As financial markets continue to trade lower, EUAs remain susceptible to downward pressure. Despite aggressive selling seen over the past week, EUAs have typically found support and rebounded quickly once sellers stepped aside. Interestingly, the market broke below the 80 EUR level earlier this week, yet each bigger move to the downside was followed by a sharp rebound. This might suggest that market participants are willing to step in and bid on deeper dips, while sellers appear equally willing to take profits during stronger rallies. Weekly auctions have been clearing at or slightly below secondary market prices, although cover ratios have declined modestly. This could be interpreted as a sign of some underlying weakness. Other markets in the European energy complex also experienced a degree of increased volatility over the past week, particularly in front-month TTF gas and front-month German power futures. In contrast, calendar power futures have continued to trend lower, which is an important signal for benchmark power prices. Underground gas storage levels continue to decline and are currently below 40 percent full. The latest weekly CoT report delivered no major surprises, showing a continued reduction in investment funds’ net long positioning. Despite the relatively sharp decline in the December 2026 futures contract—from a yearly high of 93.80 EUR to a low of 79.46 EUR—funds reduced their exposure by only around 20%. While the remaining position size could still contribute to elevated volatility should sentiment turn bearish again, it appears that the initial wave of panic has subsided to some extent.

German power prices are down by 1.60 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 83.95 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices up up by 4.50 USD since last week, with the Cal-27 contract trading at 102.50 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 0.475 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 26.625 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD down by 140 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1800

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract