This newsletter was published 25.3.2026 at 17:14pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUA prices remained highly volatile over the past week, with the market continuing to react to a dense flow of geopolitical and regulatory headlines. On one side, persistent tension in the Middle East maintained uncertainty across the energy complex. On the other, market focus shifted toward policy signals from Brussels, which ultimately proved less bearish than initially anticipated. Expectations of aggressive intervention in the EU ETS had weighed heavily on prices in recent weeks. However, the latest communication from the European Commission fell short of these fears, triggering a sharp reversal in sentiment. The December 2026 EUA futures contract rallied strongly on Friday, rising from an intraday low of 63.10 EUR to 69.80 EUR. This marks one of the largest single-day gains for EUAs in both absolute and percentage terms, highlighting the extent of repositioning following the policy update. Despite the elevated volatility, primary market dynamics remained constructive. Auctions over the past week continued to clear strongly, signalling resilient underlying compliance demand even as secondary market sentiment fluctuated. Positioning data also points to a significant shift in market structure. According to the latest CoT report, investment funds have reduced their net long exposure to around 32 million tonnes. This substantial decline in speculative length lowers the risk of disorderly long liquidation and suggests a cleaner positioning backdrop.

German power prices are up by 2.65 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 95.40 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 1.25 USD since last week, with the Cal-27 contract trading at 130.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 3.49 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 42.600 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 60 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1570.

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract