This newsletter was published 8.4.2026 at 17:24pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUA prices consolidated over the past week, with the market maintaining support above the 70 EUR for December 2026 futures contract. Trading activity has decreased noticeably, with both volumes and intraday volatility declining, suggesting a more cautious and less reactive market environment. However, this backdrop was disrupted by fresh geopolitical developments. Following a reported agreement between the US administration and Iran on a temporary 14-day ceasefire, sentiment across global markets improved. As part of the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz is set to reopen during this period, alleviating at lease some concerns around energy supply disruptions. The shift in sentiment triggered a risk-on move overnight, with carbon participating alongside broader markets. The December 2026 EUA contract opened higher and traded up to nearly 74 EUR before gradually easing back, indicating that while headline-driven buying can still push prices higher, sustained momentum remains limited. In the energy complex, the reaction was more pronounced. Front-month TTF gas prices declined sharply, falling by close to 20 percent as the easing of geopolitical tensions reduced supply risk premiums. Positioning dynamics continue to signal a lack of strong conviction. According to the latest CoT data, investment fund net length has remained unchanged for a third consecutive week. This static positioning is contributing to lower liquidity and dampened volatility, reinforcing the broader sense that the market might currently be in a defensive mode despite intermittent headline-driven moves.

German power prices are down by 1.40 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 90.20 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 7.00 USD since last week, with the Cal-27 contract trading at 118.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 1.705 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 36.995 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 80 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1690

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract