This newsletter was published 6.5.2026 at 16:51pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

The carbon market continues to trade within a well-established range, with the December 2026 EUA futures contract oscillating between 72 and 77 EUR. In recent sessions, however, the tone has firmed, with prices holding steadily above the 75 EUR level and indicating the presence of stronger buying interest. This shift in sentiment appears to be linked to evolving geopolitical developments. Reports suggesting that the United States and Iran may be moving closer to a resolution of the conflict in the Middle East have supported broader risk appetite. At the same time, conflicting headlines persist, with some sources pointing toward progress in negotiations while others highlight unresolved sticking points. Additional attention has been drawn to upcoming policy-related events. News of an EU ETS Review Roundtable scheduled for May 12 has introduced a degree of caution, particularly as the market approaches May option expiry. With the broader ETS review expected in July, participants appear reluctant to take strong directional positions, reinforcing the importance of the 75 EUR level as a near-term anchor. Primary market dynamics remain supportive. Auctions over the past week consistently cleared at a premium to the secondary market, signalling solid underlying demand. Positioning data continues to reflect a lack of conviction. Investment funds appear to be in a holding pattern, awaiting greater clarity on the ETS revision and its potential impact on the supply-demand balance. As a result, the market is likely to remain rangebound in the near term, with intermittent volatility driven by geopolitical headlines and policy developments.

German power prices are down by 1.45 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 90.55 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 6.15 USD since last week, with the Cal-27 contract trading at 116.85 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 1.950 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 36.000 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 60 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1750.

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract