This newsletter was published 3.6.2026 at 17:17pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUAs traded sideways this week, with the December 2026 EUA futures contract trading around the 80 EUR threshold. After breaking out of the multi-week range in recent sessions, prices have continued to find support, although the pace of the rally has moderated as participants digest recent policy developments and assess the next directional catalyst. A key focus for the market has been the latest announcements surrounding the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) and the Total Number of Allowances in Circulation. The European Commission confirmed that 190.5 million allowances will be placed into the MSR between September 2026 and August 2027. At the same time, market participants have been evaluating the impact of larger primary supply. EUA auctions have recently increased by almost 500,000 tonnes per EU auction, while German and Polish auction supply decreased slightly. However, despite the additional volumes, demand has remained resilient, and the market has so far absorbed the increase without significant disruption to the broader bullish trend. Fundamentally, the backdrop remains supportive. Periods of weakness appear to have been driven more by profit-taking following the strong rally than by any meaningful change in underlying market conditions. Recent positioning data also points to growing investor confidence. According to the latest CoT report, investment funds increased their net long exposure by more than 12 million tonnes over the week. This represents the largest increase in bullish positioning in several months, suggesting investors have become more comfortable with taking exposure in carbon market.

German power prices are up by 2.10 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 95.50 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 1.80 USD since last week, with the Cal-27 contract trading at 126.70 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices down up  by 1.105 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 37.200 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 20 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1610.

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract