This newsletter was published 8.7.2026 at 17:23pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

European carbon prices dropped below 80 EUR/EUA after the European Commission unveiled plans to ease compliance costs for industry under the EU Emissions Trading System, raising expectations of greater allowance availability through the end of the decade. The Commission is expected to propose changes that would provide industry with around €6 billion in additional free carbon allowances between 2026 and 2030, while confirming that 400 million permits earmarked for its new Investment Booster will be allocated directly to companies rather than auctioned. The benchmark EUA contract fell about 2% following the announcement, as traders assessed the implications for near-term supply. The proposals come as policymakers seek to balance industrial competitiveness with the bloc’s long-term climate goals. Brussels is also considering a slower reduction in the emissions cap after 2030 and a longer phase-out of free allocations for sectors covered by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Underlying market fundamentals remain supportive. Germany’s emissions from EU ETS-covered power and industrial installations fell 3.2% in 2025, reflecting weaker industrial activity and declining lignite-fired generation. At the same time, the overall allowance surplus continued to contract, reinforcing expectations of a tighter market over the longer term. Separately, the International Emissions Trading Association called for a broader overhaul of the EU ETS after 2030, advocating the integration of carbon removals, future use of international credits and closer links with the UK carbon market. The recommendations highlight growing expectations that structural allowance scarcity will require a more flexible market design while maintaining a strong investment signal for industrial decarbonisation.

German power prices are up by 4.10 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 96.60 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 3.15 USD since last week, with the Cal-27 contract trading at 113.75 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 2.895 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 37.475 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is almost unchanged since last week and is currently trading at 1.1410.

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract