This newsletter was published 21.10.2026 at 17:29 pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

EUAs remain trapped in a narrow trading range, despite some easing in gas and power prices. The market continues to find buyers around 85 EUR for December 2026 futures contract, while attempts to move higher have struggled to gain traction, with resistance holding above 88 EUR per tonne. For now, the price action points to continued consolidation rather than a clear directional move. Positioning offers little indication of an imminent breakout. The latest CoT report showed investment funds’ net exposure unchanged week on week, suggesting that speculative activity remains subdued. According to the report, net long exposure remains at roughly 37 million tonnes, down by approximately 90 million tonnes from the beginning of the year. October options expiry also passed without much excitement, largely due to very low open interest. Weekly EUA auctions delivered mixed results, with no consistent signal of stronger buying interest or increasing selling pressure. Overall, the market appears to be waiting for a fresh catalyst before committing to a direction. Energy markets remain an important driver of near-term sentiment. A forecast decline in German wind and solar generation could increase the need for thermal power generation, providing some support for EUA demand. However, stronger renewable output in France and relatively high nuclear availability should partly offset the impact. The extent of any additional carbon demand will ultimately depend on whether lower German renewable generation translates into higher fossil-fired output.

German power prices are up by 3.90 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 147.59 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 6.50 USD since last week, with the Cal-27 contract trading at 148.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 4.420 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 72.670 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 100 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1220.

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract