This newsletter was published 11.2.2026 at 16:50pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

The EU carbon market extended its recent weakness this week, with the December 2026 EUA futures contract falling to a fresh yearly low of 76.10 EUR. Trading activity was notably influenced by reduced liquidity conditions, as many market participants attended the E-World conference in Essen, resulting in a more reactive and headline-driven environment. The downward move was largely triggered by a sequence of policy-related headlines. Comments from Peter Liese, the EPP’s environmental lead, alongside leaked European Commission documents, pointed toward potential adjustments to the EU ETS reform pathway. Reports suggested that the overall linear reduction factor could decline to 3.4 percent under a revised scenario, compared to current 4.4 percent. However, this scenario would only be possible from 2029 earliest.  These developments were perceived as incrementally bearish from a structural perspective, adding pressure to an already declining market. Market participants were also closely monitoring today’s CoT report, with many anticipating a more material reduction in speculative length following the recent price weakness. However, the data delivered a modest surprise. Investment funds reduced their exposure only slightly, holding net length at more than 90 million tonnes. With prices now at new yearly lows, attention will turn to whether selling pressure persists once liquidity conditions normalize.

German power prices are down by 2.250 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 81.70 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices up up by 1.25 USD since last week, with the Cal-27 contract trading at 103.75 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 0.220 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 26.405 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD up by 50 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1850.

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract