This newsletter was published 13.5.2026 at 16:51pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

The carbon market traded largely sideways over the past week, although buyers continued attempting to establish support above the 76 EUR level in the December 2026 EUA futures contract. Momentum briefly improved early in the week, with prices holding firm before sentiment shifted sharply following fresh supply-related news. Today, the market reacted to reports of increased auction volumes scheduled between July and December, linked to funding requirements for the Social Climate Fund. The additional 40 million tonnes of supply weighed heavily on sentiment, triggering a sharp sell-off shortly after the market open and quickly reversing much of the upward move seen last week. Positioning data suggests that speculative flows were likely behind part of the recent rally. According to the latest CoT report, investment funds increased their net exposure by approximately 6 million tonnes week-on-week. In contrast to EUAs, the UK carbon market showed more strength. UKA prices rallied from around 50 GBP to nearly 54 GBP before consolidating lower, indicating stronger local buying interest and a degree of divergence from broader EU carbon sentiment. Liquidity conditions were also softer this week, partly due to the ongoing Argus Carbon Conference in Nice, where a significant portion of market participants are gathered. Reduced participation likely contributed to thinner order book, reinforcing the market’s headline-driven nature. Overall, while the broader range remains intact, the swift reversal following the auction announcement underlines how fragile sentiment remains amid evolving policy and supply expectations.

German power prices are up by 1.22 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 91.77 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 3.65 USD since last week, with the Cal-27 contract trading at 120.50 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are up by 1.175 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 37.175 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is down by 40 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1710.

Price development of EUA Dec2026 futures contract