This newsletter was published 9.4.2025 at 17:21pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

A turmoil in financial markets has begun as the Trump administration imposed historically high tariffs on all imports to the U.S., starting today, April 9. The announcement that reciprocal tariffs would be met with additional caused considerable uncertainty across global markets. Major stock indices experienced broad sell-offs. Notably, however, capital did not appear to flow into the U.S. dollar, which weakened simultaneously, and not into bonds as yields remained elevated. Energy and carbon markets have not been spared from the panic. Front-month crude oil declined by more than 15 USD per barrel within a week, driven by concerns over weakening demand. Meanwhile, front-month TTF gas prices have dropped considerably as well and are currently trading below 34 EUR. EUAs have also seen substantial declines. Only a week ago, EUA futures for December 2025 were still trading near 70 EUR per tonne, under modest selling pressure following the March option expiry, while today market trades near 60 EUR level. The initial announcement triggered a sharp overnight gap to the downside, followed by three additional overnight declines, briefly interrupted by a single upward gap. Such price movements are atypical for EUAs due to their liquidity, yet macroeconomic events of this magnitude compel markets to find a new fair value. Although news-driven markets are typically characterized by high volatility, intraday trading ranges have, for the most part, remained manageable. The notable exception was Monday, which witnessed an intraday range of nearly 5 EUR, from low to high, which is equivalent to an approximate 8 percent move. Despite the challenging conditions, auctions in the past week offered no surprises and cleared at prevailing spot prices. Looking forward, further volatility and liquidity surges are to be expected, alongside potential developments that could significantly influence market behaviour.

German power prices are up by 8.15 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 77.65 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are down by 4.80 USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 107.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 4.30 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 32.250 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 200 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1050.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract