This newsletter was published 17.9.2025 at 17:09pm CEST

The current prices on the European carbon market are as follows:

Carbon prices have continued their bullish momentum, with EUAs reaching their highest level in more than six months. Despite relatively neutral fundamentals—apart from the approaching compliance deadline for 2024 emissions surrender—the market has steadily pushed higher. Even minor dips have been quickly absorbed, highlighting persistent buying pressure. Daily auctions have reinforced this strength, with nearly all clearing at or above secondary market levels, pointing to potentially genuine underlying demand. The most striking feature of the current market environment, however, is the substantial and steadily increasing net long exposure held by investment funds. According to the latest data, gross length has surged beyond 100 million tonnes, while short positions remain at roughly 31 million tonnes. Historically, rallies driven largely by speculative flows have been rarely sustainable, often losing momentum once buying power diminished. Yet this time could prove different. Several analysts are forecasting deficit in primary supply beginning in 2026 and extending into 2027, which may provide more durable support for elevated prices. UK emission allowances have also shown notable resilience, moving in close alignment with EUAs despite the UK compliance deadline having already passed in April.

German power prices are down by 0.65 EUR since last week, with the front-year contract trading at 87.05 EUR/MWh. API2 coal prices are up by 0.05 USD since last week, with the Cal-26 contract trading at 103.00 USD/tonne. Front-year gas prices are down by 0.335 EUR since last week, with the TTF Cal-26 trading at 32.260 EUR/MWh. EUR/USD is up by 130 points since last week and is currently trading at 1.1850.

Price development of EUA Dec2025 futures contract